Il documento che segue è stato gentilmente fornito dal nostro fornitore di carta uso-mano e patinate SAPPI.

Si tratta dell'ennesimo annuncio di aumenti prezzo cellulosa previsto per giugno e luglio; la cosa non ci stupisce più ma ci preoccupa alquanto dato il trend ormai affermato e sempre in crescita. Le soluzioni sono poche: disporre di un potere di acquisto presso il fornitore forte e disporre di un magazzino organizzato a ricevere quanta più materia prima possibile.

TECNOGRAFICA dal canto suo gestisce il proprio patrimonio cartaceo sfruttando le due leve indicate sopra e prediligendo fornitori italiani ed esteri disposti a mantenere le quotazioni, le più basse possibili. Offriamo perciò tre linee di prodotto, una standard, una di alta gamma e una di secondo livello ma con prezzi molto aggressivi. Vi invitiamo pertanto a contattarci se volete saperne di più...

TEAM EDIZIONI TECNOGRAFICA

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Thu Jun 7 06:02:42 EDT 2018

Another month, another price increase for NBSK in Europe; BEK prices on hold

in May as market assesses Brazil trucker strike fallout

BRUSSELS, June 7, 2018 (PPI Europe) - May was another month, but the story was much the same as

previous months, especially for the long fiber benchmark. By all reports, the situation on the northern

bleached softwood kraft (NBSK) market remained tight, driven by strong demand in Europe. As a result,

the price increase on the table for May went through in full, once again with little difficulty as buyers

found themselves with little leverage to push back, contacts said.

On the hardwood side, contacts continued to report a snug market and good demand. With no price

increase announcements out for May, however, buyers were given a chance to catch their breath, as

prices for bleached eucalyptus kraft (BEK) remained steady. A truckers’ strike in Brazil which forced

some producers there to halt activities caused further worries on the buyer side, and though the strike

has concluded, buyers are bracing themselves for a ripple effect on deliveries as the supply chain begins

to readjust.

Given the strong market, bullish NBSK suppliers are pursuing another increase for June of $30/tonne.

On the hardwood side, Spain’s Ence announced a price increase of $20/tonne for June, but moves by

market leaders outside of Europe to lift prices in June have been largely absent thus far.

NBSK still soaring: After a $40/tonne price increase in April, producers had another $30/tonne increase

out for May, and according to all reports the hike went through in full and with minimal resistance,

bringing the price for NBSK to $1,200/tonne.

Producers were generally wary about overplaying their hand while at the same time pointing out that

market fundamentals fully supported the increase. “We understand that some customers are suffering

and that prices [for pulp] are moving up more quickly than on the paper side. The problem is this is the

market we’re in – there is no change in the market balance, the situation is very tight and customers

need more pulp. The demand for long fiber is bigger than we can meet. How do you pause in that

situation?” asked a seller.

Buyers remained largely resigned to the situation, if not happy about it. “We had no chance to resist [the

May increase]. The only decision we have control over is whether we make paper or not,” said a buyer.

In line with that, some buyers said they were either evaluating options for closing machines or had

already made some decisions in that regard.

Other market contacts concurred that this line of action was the only option at the moment available to

those on the paper side. “[Closing some machines] would address two problems buyers are facing at the

moment. First, shuts for a week, for example, could reduce demand for pulp and second, such moves

could give them more momentum to push price increases through on the paper side,” said one market

player.

A buyer noted that the market had reached the point that “paper prices must increase significantly, or

more papermakers will go bust. I expect we’ll see more curtailments, some of them heavy.”

Against the backdrop of a continued tight market, Södra has announced another price increase for June,

this time $30/tonne. While no other suppliers have made public announcements, market sources said

that other producers were also asking for an additional $30/tonne for June deliveries.

While acknowledging that the NBSK market remained tight, some buyers expressed increasing

frustration with the endless string of price rises. “At some point, you have to ask what are the suppliers

aiming for? What is the limit?” one wondered.

“We consider the [most recent] NBSK announcement as highly unnecessary. On top of the increase,

there’s the currency development, making this a double increase. They are really putting their customers

at risk,” said another buyer.

Brazil strike roils BEK market: With no price increase out for May, BEK prices remained on hold last

month, but the market was hardly calm. A nationwide trucker strike in Brazil that began on May 21 and

ran for 11 days before ending on June 1 forced many pulp and paper operations in the country to

temporarily shut and upended the supply chain both domestically and internationally, causing an already

taut market to tighten further.

Estimates of production lost as a result of the strike vary widely. According to RISI’s vice president, fiber

economic analysis David Fortin, based on an assumed total market pulp capacity of 18.3 million

tonnes/yr and an average mill capacity loss of 25% from May 28, when some mills shut, to June 1, the

total unexpected downtime would translate to a loss of 51,500 tonnes. However, if the average lost

capacity of mills affected was closer to 50%, the resulting loss could be as high as 103,000 tonnes,

according to Fortin. “This amount would be more than half of our estimate of total unexpected downtime

experienced in the Nordic region during the entire first quarter in just four days,” said Fortin. Some

market contacts suggest the loss could be significantly higher than that.

Whatever the exact figure is, market players agreed that the real effect would only be known once it

becomes more clear how developments shake out in the supply chain. “How long it takes for the rampups

following the re-start of pulp mills and how long it takes for the supply chain to return to normal will

be the key factors in determining the ultimate effect of this situation,” a contact said. Given that, several

market players said that despite the fact that mills that had stopped production are now up and running

again, the effects of the strike would be felt well into July and August.

Many market contacts admitted that market dynamics would have supported a price increase in May had

one been announced. Contacts, however, gave various reasons why no announcements had been

made.

“We recognize the situation our customers are in and their need to lift their [paper] prices. This [pause]

should give them a chance to catch up a bit,” said a seller.

Others said that announcing an increase in the middle of the truckers’ strike would not be optimal, while

still others noted there was likely hesitancy on the part of some to announce increases given pending

mergers on the producer side.

Underlying market fundamentals, however, have not really changed. “Demand is still strong, customers

are still asking for more pulp and the strike is only compounding the problems,” said a large producer.

Buyers continued to express concern over their inability to push through price increases on the paper

side at a faster rate, and as on the softwood side, suggested that paper production curtailments were

one of their few options.

“Prior to the strike we were pretty comfortable, with the supply side and inventories loosening up a bit.

That may change with the strike. We need some time to evaluate and see what can be compensated for

by the usually slower summer season. The seasonality factor, which could have turned the market, may

now only be enough to stabilize the situation,” said a buyer.

For June, Spain’s Ence has announced a $20/tonne increase for BEK, but Latin American producers

have not joined the effort, at least for now.

“It’s likely that we won’t be able to meet our contract volumes for June, so it’s very difficult to ask for a

price increase in that situation,” said a seller, indicating that prices would likely remain on hold this

month.

At least one buyer reported already closing some June business with his suppliers at stable prices.

Aside from Ence, the only other hardwood pulp producer known to have announced an increase for June

so far is Asia Pacific Resources International (APRIL), which made a global announcement of a

combined hike of $50/tonne for bleached hardwood kraft pulp over June and July. The APRIL hike

specifies an increase of $20/tonne for this month and $30/tonne next month.

<img src="https://www.risiinfo.com/images/rmgrstories/RWYSWBTZYBNGQBG.gif" alt="" width="468"

height="456" />

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